Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF, combined with ongoing observations, indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds as the main driver pinning market-implied odds near 49–51% for a 9–11°C minimum in Istanbul on September 24. Differentiating these close outcomes depends on precise factors such as local urban heat island moderation versus cooler suburban sites, dew point suppression from drier air masses, and the exact timing of the daily minimum relative to official station measurements. Model spreads remain narrow given stable high pressure, with limited precipitation risk, though any unexpected wind shift or cloud cover could nudge readings toward or below 8°C. Updated agency data releases will clarify resolution thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
8°C 94%
7°C or below 90%
11°C 50%
10°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
90%
8°C
94%
9°C
48%
10°C
49%
11°C
50%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
8°C 94%
7°C or below 90%
11°C 50%
10°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
$0 KL.
90%
8°C
$0 KL.
94%
9°C
$0 KL.
48%
10°C
$6 KL.
49%
11°C
$0 KL.
50%
12°C
$15 KL.
<1%
13°C
$15 KL.
<1%
14°C
$15 KL.
1%
15°C
$0 KL.
<1%
16°C
$15 KL.
<1%
17°C or higher
$15 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF, combined with ongoing observations, indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds as the main driver pinning market-implied odds near 49–51% for a 9–11°C minimum in Istanbul on September 24. Differentiating these close outcomes depends on precise factors such as local urban heat island moderation versus cooler suburban sites, dew point suppression from drier air masses, and the exact timing of the daily minimum relative to official station measurements. Model spreads remain narrow given stable high pressure, with limited precipitation risk, though any unexpected wind shift or cloud cover could nudge readings toward or below 8°C. Updated agency data releases will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$81Ngày kết thúc
Sep 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF, combined with ongoing observations, indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds as the main driver pinning market-implied odds near 49–51% for a 9–11°C minimum in Istanbul on September 24. Differentiating these close outcomes depends on precise factors such as local urban heat island moderation versus cooler suburban sites, dew point suppression from drier air masses, and the exact timing of the daily minimum relative to official station measurements. Model spreads remain narrow given stable high pressure, with limited precipitation risk, though any unexpected wind shift or cloud cover could nudge readings toward or below 8°C. Updated agency data releases will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$81Ngày kết thúc
Sep 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF, combined with ongoing observations, indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light variable winds as the main driver pinning market-implied odds near 49–51% for a 9–11°C minimum in Istanbul on September 24. Differentiating these close outcomes depends on precise factors such as local urban heat island moderation versus cooler suburban sites, dew point suppression from drier air masses, and the exact timing of the daily minimum relative to official station measurements. Model spreads remain narrow given stable high pressure, with limited precipitation risk, though any unexpected wind shift or cloud cover could nudge readings toward or below 8°C. Updated agency data releases will clarify resolution thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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