Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Manila on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 24?
21°C or below 93%
31°C or higher 93%
24°C 51%
28°C 51%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
93%
22°C
48%
23°C
50%
24°C
51%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
51%
29°C
51%
30°C
5%
31°C or higher
93%
21°C or below 93%
31°C or higher 93%
24°C 51%
28°C 51%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 KL.
93%
22°C
$0 KL.
48%
23°C
$0 KL.
50%
24°C
$0 KL.
51%
25°C
$0 KL.
27%
26°C
$0 KL.
27%
27°C
$0 KL.
27%
28°C
$0 KL.
51%
29°C
$0 KL.
51%
30°C
$0 KL.
5%
31°C or higher
$0 KL.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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