Trader consensus clusters tightly around 11–13 °C for Munich’s overnight minimum on August 22 because recent ECMWF and DWD ensemble runs show comparable probabilities for that narrow range amid typical late-summer variability. Primary scientific drivers include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds that limit mixing, and residual moisture from any passing showers that moderate temperature drops. Model spread arises from small differences in predicted cloud cover and surface wind forecasts valid for the 00–06 UTC period, when the daily low normally occurs. With probabilities distributed across several adjacent outcomes, the market reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario. Updated model guidance and observational data from the Deutscher Wetterdienst over the next 24 hours will likely refine these implied odds.