Forecast models from NOAA and regional guidance indicate overnight lows in NYC on August 24 will likely settle in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driven by late-summer radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 60°F and light southwesterly flow. This produces the tight clustering around 66–69°F outcomes, as small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or any weak frontal passage can shift the minimum by 2–3°F. Warmer-than-average August conditions have elevated baselines but also introduce uncertainty from variable humidity and urban heat-island effects, keeping probabilities distributed across adjacent bins rather than favoring extremes.