**Recent forecasts from National Weather Service and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 74°F for New York City on September 10, 2026, driving the market's leading 74-75°F bin (42.5% implied probability).** Persistent southerly flow and a warm, humid air mass have kept overnight lows elevated, with recent Central Park observations showing minima in the low-to-mid 60s earlier in the week rising sharply toward 75°F by September 9. Light rain or drizzle, high dew points, and cloud cover are limiting radiational cooling, while models show only modest diurnal drops under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. Historical September averages (around 63.5°F) are well below current conditions, reflecting the anomalous warmth. The next bins (72-73°F at 31%, 76-77°F at 13%) capture remaining forecast spread and minor model differences in timing of any clearing or wind shifts. With the day underway, traders are weighting official station data (Central Park) and short-term updates heavily, as the minimum will likely occur in the pre-dawn or early morning hours before daytime heating. No major cold-air advection is expected in the immediate window.