Recent forecast models indicate typical midsummer conditions for Seoul and Incheon, with overnight lows clustered between 23–27°C and limited diurnal cooling due to high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention. This positions 26°C as the leading outcome at 52.5% implied probability, followed closely by 27°C at 30%, as ensemble runs from global models converge on minimum temperatures in that narrow band for August 2. Heat wave warnings across parts of South Korea, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns and above-average sea surface temperatures, have reinforced expectations of limited nighttime relief, while any increased cloud cover or precipitation could nudge the minimum slightly lower toward 25°C. Traders are weighting the most recent model consensus and historical August baselines, where tropical nights (mins ≥25°C) occur frequently, though small variations in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed introduce the observed probability spread.