New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNJ-12 House Election Winner
NJ-12 House Election Winner
$22,311 KL.
$22,311 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$22,311 KL.
$22,311 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,221 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$8,089 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$22,311Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$22,311Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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