OpenAI’s leadership has driven the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated signals that the company will prioritize a delayed listing. CEO Sam Altman explicitly stated in September 2026 that going public this year would be ill-advised amid AI safety priorities, while internal deliberations favor waiting until 2027 to reach the target valuation above the recent $852 billion private mark. Confidential SEC filings and preparations for a potential 2026 window have shifted, with executives citing infrastructure spending, ongoing losses, and volatile tech markets as reasons to remain private longer. A new private funding round at $1.2 trillion is under early discussion. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated revenue growth after recent model releases or regulatory changes easing listing requirements, though current timelines and statements leave little room for an earlier debut.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2% khả năng
$312,553 KL.
$312,553 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
2% khả năng
$312,553 KL.
$312,553 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership has driven the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated signals that the company will prioritize a delayed listing. CEO Sam Altman explicitly stated in September 2026 that going public this year would be ill-advised amid AI safety priorities, while internal deliberations favor waiting until 2027 to reach the target valuation above the recent $852 billion private mark. Confidential SEC filings and preparations for a potential 2026 window have shifted, with executives citing infrastructure spending, ongoing losses, and volatile tech markets as reasons to remain private longer. A new private funding round at $1.2 trillion is under early discussion. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated revenue growth after recent model releases or regulatory changes easing listing requirements, though current timelines and statements leave little room for an earlier debut.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$312,553Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership has driven the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated signals that the company will prioritize a delayed listing. CEO Sam Altman explicitly stated in September 2026 that going public this year would be ill-advised amid AI safety priorities, while internal deliberations favor waiting until 2027 to reach the target valuation above the recent $852 billion private mark. Confidential SEC filings and preparations for a potential 2026 window have shifted, with executives citing infrastructure spending, ongoing losses, and volatile tech markets as reasons to remain private longer. A new private funding round at $1.2 trillion is under early discussion. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated revenue growth after recent model releases or regulatory changes easing listing requirements, though current timelines and statements leave little room for an earlier debut.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$312,553Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s leadership has driven the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated signals that the company will prioritize a delayed listing. CEO Sam Altman explicitly stated in September 2026 that going public this year would be ill-advised amid AI safety priorities, while internal deliberations favor waiting until 2027 to reach the target valuation above the recent $852 billion private mark. Confidential SEC filings and preparations for a potential 2026 window have shifted, with executives citing infrastructure spending, ongoing losses, and volatile tech markets as reasons to remain private longer. A new private funding round at $1.2 trillion is under early discussion. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated revenue growth after recent model releases or regulatory changes easing listing requirements, though current timelines and statements leave little room for an earlier debut.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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