Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 88% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Lloyd Smucker's strong reelection bid in a Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+11. Smucker, who secured 63% in 2024 and similar margins previously, faces no Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, closed primary. On the Democratic side, nurse Nancy Mannion stands as the lone contender following former Marine Sarah Klimm's withdrawal on March 3, underscoring the challenger's limited viability amid historical double-digit losses. No polling exists yet, but ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirm a safe Republican hold, with no developments in the past 30 days altering this positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,355 KL.
88%
Democratic Party
$789 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 88% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Lloyd Smucker's strong reelection bid in a Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+11. Smucker, who secured 63% in 2024 and similar margins previously, faces no Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, closed primary. On the Democratic side, nurse Nancy Mannion stands as the lone contender following former Marine Sarah Klimm's withdrawal on March 3, underscoring the challenger's limited viability amid historical double-digit losses. No polling exists yet, but ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirm a safe Republican hold, with no developments in the past 30 days altering this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,143Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 88% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Lloyd Smucker's strong reelection bid in a Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+11. Smucker, who secured 63% in 2024 and similar margins previously, faces no Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, closed primary. On the Democratic side, nurse Nancy Mannion stands as the lone contender following former Marine Sarah Klimm's withdrawal on March 3, underscoring the challenger's limited viability amid historical double-digit losses. No polling exists yet, but ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirm a safe Republican hold, with no developments in the past 30 days altering this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$2,143Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 88% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Lloyd Smucker's strong reelection bid in a Solid Republican district with a Cook PVI of R+11. Smucker, who secured 63% in 2024 and similar margins previously, faces no Republican primary challengers ahead of the May 19, 2026, closed primary. On the Democratic side, nurse Nancy Mannion stands as the lone contender following former Marine Sarah Klimm's withdrawal on March 3, underscoring the challenger's limited viability amid historical double-digit losses. No polling exists yet, but ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirm a safe Republican hold, with no developments in the past 30 days altering this positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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