**The high 93.5% trader consensus against H.R. 22 (the original SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 stems primarily from its prolonged stall in the Senate.** The bill passed the Republican-controlled House in 2025 and saw related versions, including the expanded SAVE America Act, advance in early 2026, but it has languished without a floor vote or cloture since reaching the upper chamber. Republicans hold 53 seats and face a 60-vote filibuster threshold, requiring bipartisan support that has not materialized amid Democratic opposition and resistance from some GOP senators. Recent attempts to attach provisions to must-pass legislation like the NDAA or pursue incentive-based alternatives via budget reconciliation have also failed to gain traction in the Senate as of mid-2026. President Trump has repeatedly urged passage and tied it to other priorities, yet procedural barriers, the absence of Democratic votes, and limited Republican unity have kept enactment unlikely before the end of the year or session. These dynamics reflect the "wisdom of crowds" in current pricing, where traders assess slim prospects for overcoming Senate hurdles despite House action and executive pressure.