Traders assign a 95.4% implied probability against a comprehensive congressional stock-trading ban before 2027 due to repeated legislative stalls and procedural barriers. The House passed a limited measure in July 2026 prohibiting new individual stock purchases by members, spouses, and dependents while permitting existing holdings with advance-sale notice, yet attached unrelated voter-ID language that reduced Democratic support and Senate viability. Stricter bipartisan proposals advancing through committee have since languished without floor action, and any Senate path requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster amid competing priorities ahead of midterms. Realistic shifts remain possible if leadership prioritizes a clean bill, a major ethics scandal emerges, or bipartisan negotiations yield a narrow package before the end of 2026.