Recent benchmark leadership by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory's Atria Dawn Preview on verified agentic evals like Terminal-Bench and OSWorld has highlighted Chinese labs' rapid gains in multi-step tool use and long-horizon workflows, keeping Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in contention alongside established Western players. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Agents API beta, Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 with expanded context and effort controls, and Google's Gemini updates plus MCP protocol for device integration have driven incremental improvements in demonstrated agent reliability, yet persistent gaps below human baselines on complex tasks sustain market uncertainty. With probabilities clustered tightly among top labs and elevated odds on "Other," traders appear focused on near-term releases, enterprise adoption metrics, and new benchmarks through November as the key swing factors in this closely contested ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 26%
Z.ai 26%
Alibaba 26%
Google 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
26%
Z.ai
26%
Alibaba
26%
26%
Tencent
26%
SpaceXAI
25%
DeepSeek
25%
MiniMax
25%
Nvidia
25%
Amazon
25%
Meituan
25%
Microsoft
25%
Meta
25%
Baidu
14%
OpenAI
14%
Moonshot
13%
Xiaomi
13%
ByteDance
13%
Mistral
13%
Anthropic 26%
Z.ai 26%
Alibaba 26%
Google 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$0 KL.
26%
Z.ai
$0 KL.
26%
Alibaba
$0 KL.
26%
$0 KL.
26%
Tencent
$0 KL.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 KL.
25%
DeepSeek
$0 KL.
25%
MiniMax
$0 KL.
25%
Nvidia
$0 KL.
25%
Amazon
$0 KL.
25%
Meituan
$0 KL.
25%
Microsoft
$0 KL.
25%
Meta
$0 KL.
25%
Baidu
$0 KL.
14%
OpenAI
$0 KL.
14%
Moonshot
$0 KL.
13%
Xiaomi
$0 KL.
13%
ByteDance
$0 KL.
13%
Mistral
$0 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory's Atria Dawn Preview on verified agentic evals like Terminal-Bench and OSWorld has highlighted Chinese labs' rapid gains in multi-step tool use and long-horizon workflows, keeping Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in contention alongside established Western players. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Agents API beta, Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 with expanded context and effort controls, and Google's Gemini updates plus MCP protocol for device integration have driven incremental improvements in demonstrated agent reliability, yet persistent gaps below human baselines on complex tasks sustain market uncertainty. With probabilities clustered tightly among top labs and elevated odds on "Other," traders appear focused on near-term releases, enterprise adoption metrics, and new benchmarks through November as the key swing factors in this closely contested ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory's Atria Dawn Preview on verified agentic evals like Terminal-Bench and OSWorld has highlighted Chinese labs' rapid gains in multi-step tool use and long-horizon workflows, keeping Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in contention alongside established Western players. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Agents API beta, Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 with expanded context and effort controls, and Google's Gemini updates plus MCP protocol for device integration have driven incremental improvements in demonstrated agent reliability, yet persistent gaps below human baselines on complex tasks sustain market uncertainty. With probabilities clustered tightly among top labs and elevated odds on "Other," traders appear focused on near-term releases, enterprise adoption metrics, and new benchmarks through November as the key swing factors in this closely contested ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory's Atria Dawn Preview on verified agentic evals like Terminal-Bench and OSWorld has highlighted Chinese labs' rapid gains in multi-step tool use and long-horizon workflows, keeping Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek in contention alongside established Western players. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Agents API beta, Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 with expanded context and effort controls, and Google's Gemini updates plus MCP protocol for device integration have driven incremental improvements in demonstrated agent reliability, yet persistent gaps below human baselines on complex tasks sustain market uncertainty. With probabilities clustered tightly among top labs and elevated odds on "Other," traders appear focused on near-term releases, enterprise adoption metrics, and new benchmarks through November as the key swing factors in this closely contested ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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