Apple's long-standing practice of annual iPhone launches, combined with supplier confirmations and an official September 9, 2026 event, drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Premium models including the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are slated for fall introduction with upgrades such as the 2nm A20 chip, variable-aperture cameras, and larger batteries, while a new foldable device joins them. Although the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 amid component shortages, traders treat the 18-series rollout as satisfying the resolution criteria. Potential last-minute disruptions like severe supply constraints or regulatory hurdles remain low-probability risks given Apple's production momentum and historical reliability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật99% khả năng
$175,717 KL.
$175,717 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
99% khả năng
$175,717 KL.
$175,717 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of annual iPhone launches, combined with supplier confirmations and an official September 9, 2026 event, drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Premium models including the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are slated for fall introduction with upgrades such as the 2nm A20 chip, variable-aperture cameras, and larger batteries, while a new foldable device joins them. Although the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 amid component shortages, traders treat the 18-series rollout as satisfying the resolution criteria. Potential last-minute disruptions like severe supply constraints or regulatory hurdles remain low-probability risks given Apple's production momentum and historical reliability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$175,717Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of annual iPhone launches, combined with supplier confirmations and an official September 9, 2026 event, drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Premium models including the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are slated for fall introduction with upgrades such as the 2nm A20 chip, variable-aperture cameras, and larger batteries, while a new foldable device joins them. Although the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 amid component shortages, traders treat the 18-series rollout as satisfying the resolution criteria. Potential last-minute disruptions like severe supply constraints or regulatory hurdles remain low-probability risks given Apple's production momentum and historical reliability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$175,717Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of annual iPhone launches, combined with supplier confirmations and an official September 9, 2026 event, drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Premium models including the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are slated for fall introduction with upgrades such as the 2nm A20 chip, variable-aperture cameras, and larger batteries, while a new foldable device joins them. Although the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027 amid component shortages, traders treat the 18-series rollout as satisfying the resolution criteria. Potential last-minute disruptions like severe supply constraints or regulatory hurdles remain low-probability risks given Apple's production momentum and historical reliability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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