**Recent polling and seat projections indicate a low likelihood of the Parti Québécois securing a majority in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** The PQ leads popular vote intentions at around 29% in late August and early September surveys (Léger, Pallas Data), ahead of the CAQ at 24% and the Liberals at 22%, with the Conservatives at 15% and Québec solidaire at 10%. However, models from 338Canada, The Writ, and others project the PQ winning a plurality of seats (averaging roughly 44–49) but falling short of the 64 needed for a majority in most simulations, with PQ majority odds estimated at roughly 10% or lower. Key drivers include the fragmented field of five viable parties, which splits the federalist vote and aids the PQ’s francophone concentration in many ridings, yet also produces close PQ-CAQ contests across dozens of seats. The CAQ has gained ground since Christine Fréchette’s April 2026 leadership win, narrowing the gap primarily at the Liberals’ expense. High undecided rates—around 42% of decided voters say their choice remains fluid—add volatility one month out. The PQ’s sovereigntist platform and referendum plans have not translated into majority-level support amid these dynamics, supporting traders’ 75% probability that a PQ majority will not occur.