Traders assign a 98.4% probability that Xi Jinping will not divorce before 2027 because no verifiable public signals, official statements, or credible reporting indicate marital strain between Xi and Peng Liyuan, who continue to be presented together in state media and diplomatic contexts. Peng has maintained her role as first lady through recent international engagements, with any absences from specific 2026 summits attributed to scheduling or protocol rather than separation. Xi’s earlier 1982 divorce from Ke Lingling predates his 1987 marriage to Peng by years and carries no ongoing relevance under current party norms. Chinese leadership personal matters remain tightly controlled, limiting leaks, while the absence of scandals, health disclosures, or factional challenges sustains the strong consensus reflected in market pricing. Late-breaking developments such as sudden political purges or verified health events could theoretically shift odds, though none have materialized in the past 30 days.