Xi Jinping’s removal of presidential term limits in 2018 and confirmation for a third term at the 2022 Party Congress established a framework allowing indefinite tenure, with no constitutional or procedural barriers before the scheduled 21st Party Congress in late 2027. Recent developments reinforce continuity, including Xi’s prominent role in launching the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030, public addresses on economic and military priorities, and leadership of elite reshuffles that prioritize loyal officials. Traders’ 95.5% consensus on “No” reflects this institutional entrenchment and lack of credible succession signals or elite challenges in the current cycle. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include unforeseen health events, major policy reversals triggering internal dissent, or sudden diplomatic or economic crises altering leadership dynamics before the congress.