Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York as of September 23, 2026, with no reports of charges, investigations, or internal regime actions targeting him for arrest. His public role in regional talks, including on the Strait of Hormuz and post-conflict negotiations, underscores institutional continuity rather than domestic upheaval. Trader consensus at 98.9% against an arrest by September 28 reflects the absence of verifiable political triggers or precedent for such rapid action against a sitting senior official. Limited scenarios that could still alter this include an abrupt internal power shift or unforeseen legal development within Iran's security apparatus, though none appear imminent based on current reporting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
1% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-28
是
1% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York as of September 23, 2026, with no reports of charges, investigations, or internal regime actions targeting him for arrest. His public role in regional talks, including on the Strait of Hormuz and post-conflict negotiations, underscores institutional continuity rather than domestic upheaval. Trader consensus at 98.9% against an arrest by September 28 reflects the absence of verifiable political triggers or precedent for such rapid action against a sitting senior official. Limited scenarios that could still alter this include an abrupt internal power shift or unforeseen legal development within Iran's security apparatus, though none appear imminent based on current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
交易量
$794結束日期
2026-09-29市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York as of September 23, 2026, with no reports of charges, investigations, or internal regime actions targeting him for arrest. His public role in regional talks, including on the Strait of Hormuz and post-conflict negotiations, underscores institutional continuity rather than domestic upheaval. Trader consensus at 98.9% against an arrest by September 28 reflects the absence of verifiable political triggers or precedent for such rapid action against a sitting senior official. Limited scenarios that could still alter this include an abrupt internal power shift or unforeseen legal development within Iran's security apparatus, though none appear imminent based on current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abbas Araghchi is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Araghchi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$794結束日期
2026-09-29市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 5:06 PM ETIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains actively engaged in diplomacy, including bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York as of September 23, 2026, with no reports of charges, investigations, or internal regime actions targeting him for arrest. His public role in regional talks, including on the Strait of Hormuz and post-conflict negotiations, underscores institutional continuity rather than domestic upheaval. Trader consensus at 98.9% against an arrest by September 28 reflects the absence of verifiable political triggers or precedent for such rapid action against a sitting senior official. Limited scenarios that could still alter this include an abrupt internal power shift or unforeseen legal development within Iran's security apparatus, though none appear imminent based on current reporting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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