Market icon

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

Market icon

又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？

May 31

May 31

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,763 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$3,110 交易量

18%

4月30日

$2,696 交易量

81%

5月31日

$2,041 交易量

89%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$7,763
結束日期
May 31, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.

Trader sentiment on the likelihood of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake hinges on steady global seismic patterns tracked by the USGS, which records about 15-20 such events annually, or roughly one every 10-18 days. The most recent struck the Drake Passage on December 5 (M7.0), following a cluster including South Sandwich Islands (M7.1, Nov 24) and Flores Sea (M7.0, Nov 11), reflecting typical activity along the Ring of Fire and subduction zones without unusual upticks. No reliable short-term forecasting exists, so markets aggregate statistical baselines and real-time monitoring data; heightened scrutiny follows major quakes due to aftershock risks, but probabilities remain driven by historical averages amid unpredictable plate tectonics. Key watch areas include Pacific hotspots, with resolution tied precisely to USGS-verified magnitudes.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5月31日" at 89%, followed by "4月30日" at 81%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" is "5月31日" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月30日" at 81%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "又發生了7.0級或以上的地震... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.