The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, has become a prime Democratic target ahead of the November 3 general election. Nominees Amish Shah and Jay Feely emerged from July 21 primaries in a district that Trump carried by roughly three points in 2024 yet rates as a toss-up or lean Democratic across most forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 71.5% implied probability, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
72%
共和黨
28%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
$6,830 交易量
72%
共和黨
$1,195 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, has become a prime Democratic target ahead of the November 3 general election. Nominees Amish Shah and Jay Feely emerged from July 21 primaries in a district that Trump carried by roughly three points in 2024 yet rates as a toss-up or lean Democratic across most forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 71.5% implied probability, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
交易量
$8,025結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, has become a prime Democratic target ahead of the November 3 general election. Nominees Amish Shah and Jay Feely emerged from July 21 primaries in a district that Trump carried by roughly three points in 2024 yet rates as a toss-up or lean Democratic across most forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 71.5% implied probability, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,025結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETThe open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, has become a prime Democratic target ahead of the November 3 general election. Nominees Amish Shah and Jay Feely emerged from July 21 primaries in a district that Trump carried by roughly three points in 2024 yet rates as a toss-up or lean Democratic across most forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 71.5% implied probability, consistent with historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s narrow margins in recent cycles. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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