Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation that have tempered rate-cut expectations. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding forecasts of around 59,000—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling economic strength. Concurrently, March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and driven by a 10.9% energy surge, complicating the Fed's path despite its March dot plot projecting just one 25 basis-point cut in 2026. The modest 9.5% odds for a 25 bps decrease capture lingering disinflation hopes ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, while hike probabilities remain slim amid the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變動 83%
下調25個基點 10%
上調25個基點 3.5%
降息50個基點以上 3.0%
$3,602,757 交易量
$3,602,757 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
3%
下調25個基點
10%
無變動
83%
上調25個基點
4%
上調50個基點以上
1%
無變動 83%
下調25個基點 10%
上調25個基點 3.5%
降息50個基點以上 3.0%
$3,602,757 交易量
$3,602,757 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
$158,720 交易量
3%
下調25個基點
$108,348 交易量
10%
無變動
$160,016 交易量
83%
上調25個基點
$3,009,026 交易量
4%
上調50個基點以上
$166,646 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation that have tempered rate-cut expectations. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding forecasts of around 59,000—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling economic strength. Concurrently, March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and driven by a 10.9% energy surge, complicating the Fed's path despite its March dot plot projecting just one 25 basis-point cut in 2026. The modest 9.5% odds for a 25 bps decrease capture lingering disinflation hopes ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, while hike probabilities remain slim amid the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$3,602,757結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation that have tempered rate-cut expectations. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding forecasts of around 59,000—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling economic strength. Concurrently, March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and driven by a 10.9% energy surge, complicating the Fed's path despite its March dot plot projecting just one 25 basis-point cut in 2026. The modest 9.5% odds for a 25 bps decrease capture lingering disinflation hopes ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, while hike probabilities remain slim amid the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$3,602,757結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation that have tempered rate-cut expectations. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—far exceeding forecasts of around 59,000—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling economic strength. Concurrently, March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from February's 2.4% and driven by a 10.9% energy surge, complicating the Fed's path despite its March dot plot projecting just one 25 basis-point cut in 2026. The modest 9.5% odds for a 25 bps decrease capture lingering disinflation hopes ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, while hike probabilities remain slim amid the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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