Recent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices, combined with steady labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent pause at the March and April FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with policymakers citing upside risks to inflation over near-term easing. This backdrop drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause through the June 16-17 meeting. The May CPI release on June 10 represents the main near-term catalyst that could alter expectations, though current conditions suggest limited scope for a shift absent a sharp downside surprise in prices or employment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 98.8%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,508,902 交易量
$1,508,902 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
1%
其他
1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 98.8%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,508,902 交易量
$1,508,902 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$177,017 交易量
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
$252,932 交易量
1%
其他
$335,941 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices, combined with steady labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent pause at the March and April FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with policymakers citing upside risks to inflation over near-term easing. This backdrop drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause through the June 16-17 meeting. The May CPI release on June 10 represents the main near-term catalyst that could alter expectations, though current conditions suggest limited scope for a shift absent a sharp downside surprise in prices or employment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,508,902結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices, combined with steady labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent pause at the March and April FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with policymakers citing upside risks to inflation over near-term easing. This backdrop drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause through the June 16-17 meeting. The May CPI release on June 10 represents the main near-term catalyst that could alter expectations, though current conditions suggest limited scope for a shift absent a sharp downside surprise in prices or employment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,508,902結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation readings, including the April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid higher energy prices, combined with steady labor market data such as May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent pause at the March and April FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75%, with policymakers citing upside risks to inflation over near-term easing. This backdrop drives the 98.9% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause through the June 16-17 meeting. The May CPI release on June 10 represents the main near-term catalyst that could alter expectations, though current conditions suggest limited scope for a shift absent a sharp downside surprise in prices or employment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions