Traders have priced in a 99.1% probability of Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve’s March, April, and June 2026 meetings because incoming data have shown inflation remaining elevated, with core PCE near 3.0–3.2% and energy prices pushing headline readings higher, while the labor market has stayed resilient with unemployment near 4.3% and only modest job gains. The March and April FOMC statements reinforced this stance by maintaining the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and balanced risks, consistent with the updated dot plot showing limited near-term easing. This market-implied path aligns with recent central-bank communications emphasizing data dependence and patience until inflation converges sustainably to 2%. A sharper-than-expected decline in core services prices or a material weakening in payrolls could still shift expectations, though such developments appear limited in the current data flow ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.1%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,515,044 交易量
$1,515,044 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
1%
其他
<1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.1%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,515,044 交易量
$1,515,044 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$178,278 交易量
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
$254,216 交易量
1%
其他
$337,208 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced in a 99.1% probability of Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve’s March, April, and June 2026 meetings because incoming data have shown inflation remaining elevated, with core PCE near 3.0–3.2% and energy prices pushing headline readings higher, while the labor market has stayed resilient with unemployment near 4.3% and only modest job gains. The March and April FOMC statements reinforced this stance by maintaining the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and balanced risks, consistent with the updated dot plot showing limited near-term easing. This market-implied path aligns with recent central-bank communications emphasizing data dependence and patience until inflation converges sustainably to 2%. A sharper-than-expected decline in core services prices or a material weakening in payrolls could still shift expectations, though such developments appear limited in the current data flow ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,515,044結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced in a 99.1% probability of Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve’s March, April, and June 2026 meetings because incoming data have shown inflation remaining elevated, with core PCE near 3.0–3.2% and energy prices pushing headline readings higher, while the labor market has stayed resilient with unemployment near 4.3% and only modest job gains. The March and April FOMC statements reinforced this stance by maintaining the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and balanced risks, consistent with the updated dot plot showing limited near-term easing. This market-implied path aligns with recent central-bank communications emphasizing data dependence and patience until inflation converges sustainably to 2%. A sharper-than-expected decline in core services prices or a material weakening in payrolls could still shift expectations, though such developments appear limited in the current data flow ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,515,044結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced in a 99.1% probability of Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve’s March, April, and June 2026 meetings because incoming data have shown inflation remaining elevated, with core PCE near 3.0–3.2% and energy prices pushing headline readings higher, while the labor market has stayed resilient with unemployment near 4.3% and only modest job gains. The March and April FOMC statements reinforced this stance by maintaining the federal funds rate target at 3.50–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and balanced risks, consistent with the updated dot plot showing limited near-term easing. This market-implied path aligns with recent central-bank communications emphasizing data dependence and patience until inflation converges sustainably to 2%. A sharper-than-expected decline in core services prices or a material weakening in payrolls could still shift expectations, though such developments appear limited in the current data flow ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions