Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, now priced at 98.9% implied probability. The federal funds rate target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision, supported by April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. Markets continue to price in no policy shift at the June 16–17 meeting ahead of the June 10 CPI release, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited scope for easing. A substantial downside surprise in inflation data could introduce modest volatility, though the broader economic backdrop continues to constrain realistic paths to a rate adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.1%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,511,649 交易量
$1,511,649 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
1%
其他
1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.1%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,511,649 交易量
$1,511,649 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$177,147 交易量
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
$253,169 交易量
1%
其他
$336,068 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, now priced at 98.9% implied probability. The federal funds rate target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision, supported by April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. Markets continue to price in no policy shift at the June 16–17 meeting ahead of the June 10 CPI release, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited scope for easing. A substantial downside surprise in inflation data could introduce modest volatility, though the broader economic backdrop continues to constrain realistic paths to a rate adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,511,649結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, now priced at 98.9% implied probability. The federal funds rate target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision, supported by April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. Markets continue to price in no policy shift at the June 16–17 meeting ahead of the June 10 CPI release, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited scope for easing. A substantial downside surprise in inflation data could introduce modest volatility, though the broader economic backdrop continues to constrain realistic paths to a rate adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,511,649結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have anchored trader consensus around the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the March, April, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, now priced at 98.9% implied probability. The federal funds rate target range has remained at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision, supported by April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. Markets continue to price in no policy shift at the June 16–17 meeting ahead of the June 10 CPI release, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited scope for easing. A substantial downside surprise in inflation data could introduce modest volatility, though the broader economic backdrop continues to constrain realistic paths to a rate adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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