Recent FOMC communications and incoming data have anchored market-implied odds at 99.3% for no change in the federal funds rate target range at the March, May, and June meetings. Elevated April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent pause stance at the 3.50–3.75% level. Minutes from the April 29 decision highlighted risks from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trader consensus away from earlier cut expectations. The June 16–17 meeting remains the next key catalyst, where any surprise moderation in energy prices or labor data could still introduce limited scope for a later adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.4%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,591,154 交易量
$1,591,154 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
1%
其他
<1%
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動 99.4%
暫停–暫停–降息 <1%
其他 <1%
$1,591,154 交易量
$1,591,154 交易量
2026-06-17
按兵不動–按兵不動–按兵不動
$245,324 交易量
99%
暫停–暫停–降息
$259,679 交易量
1%
其他
$340,810 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and incoming data have anchored market-implied odds at 99.3% for no change in the federal funds rate target range at the March, May, and June meetings. Elevated April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent pause stance at the 3.50–3.75% level. Minutes from the April 29 decision highlighted risks from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trader consensus away from earlier cut expectations. The June 16–17 meeting remains the next key catalyst, where any surprise moderation in energy prices or labor data could still introduce limited scope for a later adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,591,154結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and incoming data have anchored market-implied odds at 99.3% for no change in the federal funds rate target range at the March, May, and June meetings. Elevated April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent pause stance at the 3.50–3.75% level. Minutes from the April 29 decision highlighted risks from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trader consensus away from earlier cut expectations. The June 16–17 meeting remains the next key catalyst, where any surprise moderation in energy prices or labor data could still introduce limited scope for a later adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,591,154結束日期
2026-06-17市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC communications and incoming data have anchored market-implied odds at 99.3% for no change in the federal funds rate target range at the March, May, and June meetings. Elevated April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent pause stance at the 3.50–3.75% level. Minutes from the April 29 decision highlighted risks from persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trader consensus away from earlier cut expectations. The June 16–17 meeting remains the next key catalyst, where any surprise moderation in energy prices or labor data could still introduce limited scope for a later adjustment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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