Polymarket traders price a 71% implied probability of Fed pauses at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. Hotter-than-expected March CPI (+3.5% year-over-year, core +3.8%) released April 10, followed by firm PPI and a robust April 5 nonfarm payrolls report (+303,000 jobs), signal persistent inflation pressures and a tight labor market, pushing back market-implied first-cut odds to September or later versus the March dot plot's median three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent stance with no urgency to ease amid 5.25–5.50% fed funds rate stability, while traders eye upcoming April CPI (May 15 release) and June projections for potential shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 交易量
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 交易量
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 交易量
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$0 交易量
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$271 交易量
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$169 交易量
14%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 交易量
1%
Other
$0 交易量
15%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 71% implied probability of Fed pauses at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. Hotter-than-expected March CPI (+3.5% year-over-year, core +3.8%) released April 10, followed by firm PPI and a robust April 5 nonfarm payrolls report (+303,000 jobs), signal persistent inflation pressures and a tight labor market, pushing back market-implied first-cut odds to September or later versus the March dot plot's median three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent stance with no urgency to ease amid 5.25–5.50% fed funds rate stability, while traders eye upcoming April CPI (May 15 release) and June projections for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$440結束日期
Jul 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 71% implied probability of Fed pauses at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. Hotter-than-expected March CPI (+3.5% year-over-year, core +3.8%) released April 10, followed by firm PPI and a robust April 5 nonfarm payrolls report (+303,000 jobs), signal persistent inflation pressures and a tight labor market, pushing back market-implied first-cut odds to September or later versus the March dot plot's median three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent stance with no urgency to ease amid 5.25–5.50% fed funds rate stability, while traders eye upcoming April CPI (May 15 release) and June projections for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$440結束日期
Jul 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 71% implied probability of Fed pauses at the April 30–May 1, June 11–12, and July 30–31 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. Hotter-than-expected March CPI (+3.5% year-over-year, core +3.8%) released April 10, followed by firm PPI and a robust April 5 nonfarm payrolls report (+303,000 jobs), signal persistent inflation pressures and a tight labor market, pushing back market-implied first-cut odds to September or later versus the March dot plot's median three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent stance with no urgency to ease amid 5.25–5.50% fed funds rate stability, while traders eye upcoming April CPI (May 15 release) and June projections for potential shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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