Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a 22°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 8, backed by real-time hourly observations from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station (ZHHH via Wunderground and China Meteorological Administration data), which recorded a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent overcast skies and light northeast winds following rain showers the prior day. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud cover—evident in 61% relative humidity and dew points around 14°C—has capped surface heating well below May climatological averages of 26–28°C. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist, a challenge to this positioning would require improbable late-afternoon clearing and rapid convective warming before sunset, with final daily maximum confirmation expected from CMA archives within 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月8日武漢氣溫最高?
22°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
$70,235 交易量
$70,235 交易量
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
否
22°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
$70,235 交易量
$70,235 交易量
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 6, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a 22°C high temperature in Wuhan on May 8, backed by real-time hourly observations from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station (ZHHH via Wunderground and China Meteorological Administration data), which recorded a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent overcast skies and light northeast winds following rain showers the prior day. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud cover—evident in 61% relative humidity and dew points around 14°C—has capped surface heating well below May climatological averages of 26–28°C. While inherent measurement uncertainties exist, a challenge to this positioning would require improbable late-afternoon clearing and rapid convective warming before sunset, with final daily maximum confirmation expected from CMA archives within 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

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