Trader consensus favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater from April 13-19 at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 per USGS monitoring, against a global historical baseline of approximately 20-25 M6.5+ quakes per year—or about 0.4 per week—following a Poisson distribution pattern on active tectonic boundaries. Recent USGS data shows normal seismic levels worldwide, with the last significant event a M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and no foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or fault-specific upticks signaling heightened risk in the remaining three days. Continuous real-time USGS feeds could shift odds rapidly with new detections, underscoring the unpredictable nature of seismic releases along plate margins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月13日至19日發生了幾次6.5級或以上的地震？
4月13日至19日發生了幾次6.5級或以上的地震？
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 1.6%
$33,219 交易量
$33,219 交易量
2026-04-19
0
65%
1
26%
2
8%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 1.6%
$33,219 交易量
$33,219 交易量
2026-04-19
0
$9,809 交易量
65%
1
$7,130 交易量
26%
2
$3,721 交易量
8%
3
$1,475 交易量
2%
4
$5,948 交易量
1%
5
$2,139 交易量
<1%
>5
$2,997 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater from April 13-19 at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 per USGS monitoring, against a global historical baseline of approximately 20-25 M6.5+ quakes per year—or about 0.4 per week—following a Poisson distribution pattern on active tectonic boundaries. Recent USGS data shows normal seismic levels worldwide, with the last significant event a M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and no foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or fault-specific upticks signaling heightened risk in the remaining three days. Continuous real-time USGS feeds could shift odds rapidly with new detections, underscoring the unpredictable nature of seismic releases along plate margins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$33,219結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater from April 13-19 at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 per USGS monitoring, against a global historical baseline of approximately 20-25 M6.5+ quakes per year—or about 0.4 per week—following a Poisson distribution pattern on active tectonic boundaries. Recent USGS data shows normal seismic levels worldwide, with the last significant event a M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and no foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or fault-specific upticks signaling heightened risk in the remaining three days. Continuous real-time USGS feeds could shift odds rapidly with new detections, underscoring the unpredictable nature of seismic releases along plate margins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$33,219結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater from April 13-19 at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any such events through April 16 per USGS monitoring, against a global historical baseline of approximately 20-25 M6.5+ quakes per year—or about 0.4 per week—following a Poisson distribution pattern on active tectonic boundaries. Recent USGS data shows normal seismic levels worldwide, with the last significant event a M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and no foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or fault-specific upticks signaling heightened risk in the remaining three days. Continuous real-time USGS feeds could shift odds rapidly with new detections, underscoring the unpredictable nature of seismic releases along plate margins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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