Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$38,378 交易量
$38,378 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
94%
民主黨
7%
$38,378 交易量
$38,378 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$15,407 交易量
94%
民主黨
$22,971 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$38,378結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$38,378結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race, backed by the rural northern Illinois district’s consistent R+11 partisan lean and his unopposed primary victories in both 2024 and 2026. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, citing LaHood’s established name recognition, family political legacy, and substantial fundraising edge over Democrat Paul Nolley. Trader consensus on the 93.5% Republican probability aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive challengers or major local shifts. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle disruptions such as a significant scandal or health event involving LaHood, or unusually high opposition turnout and resources. The November 3, 2026 general election remains the resolution trigger.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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