Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's known uranium enrichment facilities, including centrifuge cascades at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending any potential breakout timeline well beyond the end of 2026. IAEA reports confirm no verified diversion of nuclear material to weapons and note that roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible under rubble, with inspectors lacking access to key sites since February 2026. A brief June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed without progress on down-blending or verification, while a September 2026 IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing compliance issues. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects this degraded infrastructure and lack of weaponization evidence, though concealed surviving centrifuges, rapid recovery of buried material, or an accelerated clandestine effort could still shift outcomes before December 31.