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icon for 2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）

2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）

icon for 2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）

2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）

1.20–1.24ºC 78%

1.15–1.19ºC 26.2%

1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%

1.10–1.14ºC 1.1%

Polymarket

$54,567 交易量

1.20–1.24ºC 78%

1.15–1.19ºC 26.2%

1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%

1.10–1.14ºC 1.1%

Polymarket

$54,567 交易量

低於1.10ºC

$8,132 交易量

1%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,214 交易量

1%

1.15–1.19ºC

$10,184 交易量

18%

1.20–1.24ºC

$13,069 交易量

78%

1.25–1.29ºC

$13,882 交易量

5%

>1.29ºC

$4,085 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place July 2026 global surface air temperatures near 1.2°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.20–1.24°C outcome. Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C in mid-July and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, provide the main short-term warming boost amid elevated baseline greenhouse forcing. This follows cooler 2025 readings around 1.19°C and occurs as ocean heat content remains high after prior years. Traders weigh upcoming final July datasets and August ENSO updates, noting that model spread and any rapid shifts in atmospheric coupling could still nudge the anomaly within the narrow leading bin.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$54,567
結束日期
2026-08-01
市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place July 2026 global surface air temperatures near 1.2°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.20–1.24°C outcome. Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C in mid-July and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, provide the main short-term warming boost amid elevated baseline greenhouse forcing. This follows cooler 2025 readings around 1.19°C and occurs as ocean heat content remains high after prior years. Traders weigh upcoming final July datasets and August ENSO updates, noting that model spread and any rapid shifts in atmospheric coupling could still nudge the anomaly within the narrow leading bin.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$54,567
結束日期
2026-08-01
市場開放時間
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.20–1.24ºC" at 78%, followed by "1.15–1.19ºC" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）" has generated $54.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）" is "1.20–1.24ºC" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.15–1.19ºC" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年7月溫度升高（ ºC ）" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.