President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Christopher Wright framed the directive as referring to subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of technical preparation under current readiness plans. Congressional resistance, including proposed legislation to codify the moratorium, combined with diplomatic signaling from Russia and China and the absence of any confirmed test authorization through mid-2026, has kept trader-implied probabilities for a test by September or December 2026 below 5 percent. Scheduled congressional funding debates and potential administration policy updates remain the principal near-term catalysts that could alter these assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$768,767 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,767 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,767 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Christopher Wright framed the directive as referring to subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of technical preparation under current readiness plans. Congressional resistance, including proposed legislation to codify the moratorium, combined with diplomatic signaling from Russia and China and the absence of any confirmed test authorization through mid-2026, has kept trader-implied probabilities for a test by September or December 2026 below 5 percent. Scheduled congressional funding debates and potential administration policy updates remain the principal near-term catalysts that could alter these assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,767結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Christopher Wright framed the directive as referring to subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of technical preparation under current readiness plans. Congressional resistance, including proposed legislation to codify the moratorium, combined with diplomatic signaling from Russia and China and the absence of any confirmed test authorization through mid-2026, has kept trader-implied probabilities for a test by September or December 2026 below 5 percent. Scheduled congressional funding debates and potential administration policy updates remain the principal near-term catalysts that could alter these assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,767結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Christopher Wright framed the directive as referring to subcritical or non-explosive experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of technical preparation under current readiness plans. Congressional resistance, including proposed legislation to codify the moratorium, combined with diplomatic signaling from Russia and China and the absence of any confirmed test authorization through mid-2026, has kept trader-implied probabilities for a test by September or December 2026 below 5 percent. Scheduled congressional funding debates and potential administration policy updates remain the principal near-term catalysts that could alter these assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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