The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations at national laboratories like Los Alamos and Livermore to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities spurred Department of Energy and Pentagon assessments, but no detonations have occurred amid congressional funding restrictions in the National Defense Authorization Act and global non-proliferation concerns. The most recent development, on April 29, 2026, saw the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warn the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Absent firm executive orders or Nevada Test Site preparations, trader consensus reflects slim odds for tests before year-end, with potential shifts from escalating arms race signals or budget votes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$664,009 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
8%
$664,009 交易量
2026年6月30日
$38,046 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$5,584 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$10,161 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations at national laboratories like Los Alamos and Livermore to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities spurred Department of Energy and Pentagon assessments, but no detonations have occurred amid congressional funding restrictions in the National Defense Authorization Act and global non-proliferation concerns. The most recent development, on April 29, 2026, saw the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warn the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Absent firm executive orders or Nevada Test Site preparations, trader consensus reflects slim odds for tests before year-end, with potential shifts from escalating arms race signals or budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$664,009結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations at national laboratories like Los Alamos and Livermore to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities spurred Department of Energy and Pentagon assessments, but no detonations have occurred amid congressional funding restrictions in the National Defense Authorization Act and global non-proliferation concerns. The most recent development, on April 29, 2026, saw the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warn the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Absent firm executive orders or Nevada Test Site preparations, trader consensus reflects slim odds for tests before year-end, with potential shifts from escalating arms race signals or budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$664,009結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations at national laboratories like Los Alamos and Livermore to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities spurred Department of Energy and Pentagon assessments, but no detonations have occurred amid congressional funding restrictions in the National Defense Authorization Act and global non-proliferation concerns. The most recent development, on April 29, 2026, saw the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warn the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Absent firm executive orders or Nevada Test Site preparations, trader consensus reflects slim odds for tests before year-end, with potential shifts from escalating arms race signals or budget votes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions