Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has faced intensified factional rivalries between hardline clerical groups and pragmatic or military-aligned officials. Hardliners, including members of the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup by sidelining parliament, pursuing U.S. truce negotiations, and elevating the Supreme Council for National Security while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Recent reports highlight hardliner efforts to disrupt the truce through independent actions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside longstanding rumors of potential IRGC involvement amid economic strain and unresolved power vacuums. These internal divisions and accusations of institutional maneuvering form the core context for assessing any coordinated effort by state actors to seize control.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,132,659 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
9%
$2,132,659 交易量
12月31日
$91,434 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has faced intensified factional rivalries between hardline clerical groups and pragmatic or military-aligned officials. Hardliners, including members of the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup by sidelining parliament, pursuing U.S. truce negotiations, and elevating the Supreme Council for National Security while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Recent reports highlight hardliner efforts to disrupt the truce through independent actions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside longstanding rumors of potential IRGC involvement amid economic strain and unresolved power vacuums. These internal divisions and accusations of institutional maneuvering form the core context for assessing any coordinated effort by state actors to seize control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,132,659結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has faced intensified factional rivalries between hardline clerical groups and pragmatic or military-aligned officials. Hardliners, including members of the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup by sidelining parliament, pursuing U.S. truce negotiations, and elevating the Supreme Council for National Security while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Recent reports highlight hardliner efforts to disrupt the truce through independent actions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside longstanding rumors of potential IRGC involvement amid economic strain and unresolved power vacuums. These internal divisions and accusations of institutional maneuvering form the core context for assessing any coordinated effort by state actors to seize control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,132,659結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETFollowing the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has faced intensified factional rivalries between hardline clerical groups and pragmatic or military-aligned officials. Hardliners, including members of the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a soft coup by sidelining parliament, pursuing U.S. truce negotiations, and elevating the Supreme Council for National Security while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. Recent reports highlight hardliner efforts to disrupt the truce through independent actions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside longstanding rumors of potential IRGC involvement amid economic strain and unresolved power vacuums. These internal divisions and accusations of institutional maneuvering form the core context for assessing any coordinated effort by state actors to seize control.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions