Xi Jinping’s repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and several other senior PLA officers, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional pushback. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the Chinese Communist Party’s Leninist structures, combined with Xi’s dominance over the Central Military Commission and security apparatus, have produced consistent loyalty and opacity that historically suppress challenges. Significant barriers include the absence of independent military factions, tight information controls, and the party’s prioritization of internal discipline. Plausible shifts remain tied to unforeseen events such as acute leadership health crises, severe economic dislocations eroding elite cohesion, or external shocks altering power calculations within the closed system.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$154,872 交易量
$154,872 交易量
2026-12-30
是
4% 機率
$154,872 交易量
$154,872 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and several other senior PLA officers, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional pushback. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the Chinese Communist Party’s Leninist structures, combined with Xi’s dominance over the Central Military Commission and security apparatus, have produced consistent loyalty and opacity that historically suppress challenges. Significant barriers include the absence of independent military factions, tight information controls, and the party’s prioritization of internal discipline. Plausible shifts remain tied to unforeseen events such as acute leadership health crises, severe economic dislocations eroding elite cohesion, or external shocks altering power calculations within the closed system.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$154,872結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and several other senior PLA officers, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional pushback. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the Chinese Communist Party’s Leninist structures, combined with Xi’s dominance over the Central Military Commission and security apparatus, have produced consistent loyalty and opacity that historically suppress challenges. Significant barriers include the absence of independent military factions, tight information controls, and the party’s prioritization of internal discipline. Plausible shifts remain tied to unforeseen events such as acute leadership health crises, severe economic dislocations eroding elite cohesion, or external shocks altering power calculations within the closed system.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$154,872結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and several other senior PLA officers, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rivals without triggering organized resistance or factional pushback. Traders assign a 96% probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because the Chinese Communist Party’s Leninist structures, combined with Xi’s dominance over the Central Military Commission and security apparatus, have produced consistent loyalty and opacity that historically suppress challenges. Significant barriers include the absence of independent military factions, tight information controls, and the party’s prioritization of internal discipline. Plausible shifts remain tied to unforeseen events such as acute leadership health crises, severe economic dislocations eroding elite cohesion, or external shocks altering power calculations within the closed system.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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