The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order and resulting fuel blockade, enacted after the Venezuela intervention cut off Cuban oil supplies, have triggered acute energy shortages and economic strain on the island while advancing explicit regime-change goals by year-end. Military signaling has included the USS Nimitz carrier group’s Caribbean deployment, heightened surveillance overflights, SOUTHCOM training expansions, and a May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, alongside reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran near Guantánamo Bay. These steps have elevated trader attention to contingency planning, yet no kinetic operations have occurred. Constraints such as U.S. commitments in the Persian Gulf, the November midterm elections, and the political costs of direct intervention continue to shape low implied probabilities for near-term military action despite the ongoing pressure campaign.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,281,258 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
19%
$7,281,258 交易量
12月31日
$5,102,153 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order and resulting fuel blockade, enacted after the Venezuela intervention cut off Cuban oil supplies, have triggered acute energy shortages and economic strain on the island while advancing explicit regime-change goals by year-end. Military signaling has included the USS Nimitz carrier group’s Caribbean deployment, heightened surveillance overflights, SOUTHCOM training expansions, and a May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, alongside reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran near Guantánamo Bay. These steps have elevated trader attention to contingency planning, yet no kinetic operations have occurred. Constraints such as U.S. commitments in the Persian Gulf, the November midterm elections, and the political costs of direct intervention continue to shape low implied probabilities for near-term military action despite the ongoing pressure campaign.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$7,281,258結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order and resulting fuel blockade, enacted after the Venezuela intervention cut off Cuban oil supplies, have triggered acute energy shortages and economic strain on the island while advancing explicit regime-change goals by year-end. Military signaling has included the USS Nimitz carrier group’s Caribbean deployment, heightened surveillance overflights, SOUTHCOM training expansions, and a May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, alongside reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran near Guantánamo Bay. These steps have elevated trader attention to contingency planning, yet no kinetic operations have occurred. Constraints such as U.S. commitments in the Persian Gulf, the November midterm elections, and the political costs of direct intervention continue to shape low implied probabilities for near-term military action despite the ongoing pressure campaign.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$7,281,258結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s January 2026 executive order and resulting fuel blockade, enacted after the Venezuela intervention cut off Cuban oil supplies, have triggered acute energy shortages and economic strain on the island while advancing explicit regime-change goals by year-end. Military signaling has included the USS Nimitz carrier group’s Caribbean deployment, heightened surveillance overflights, SOUTHCOM training expansions, and a May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, alongside reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran near Guantánamo Bay. These steps have elevated trader attention to contingency planning, yet no kinetic operations have occurred. Constraints such as U.S. commitments in the Persian Gulf, the November midterm elections, and the political costs of direct intervention continue to shape low implied probabilities for near-term military action despite the ongoing pressure campaign.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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