Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$211,746 交易量
$211,746 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
99%
GERB–SDS
<1%
PP–DB
<1%
DPS
<1%
有这样一个民族党（ITN）
<1%
维利奇
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
<1%
MECH
<1%
复兴党
<1%
PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$211,746 交易量
$211,746 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
$75,843 交易量
99%
GERB–SDS
$33,863 交易量
<1%
PP–DB
$34,171 交易量
<1%
DPS
$4,252 交易量
<1%
有这样一个民族党（ITN）
$11,889 交易量
<1%
维利奇
$15,738 交易量
<1%
APS
$11,608 交易量
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
$7,898 交易量
<1%
MECH
$10,144 交易量
<1%
复兴党
$9,543 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
交易量
$211,746结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$211,746结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 99% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by dominant recent polls showing 30-33% support—double that of GERB–SDS at 18-21%. Radev's new alliance has surged amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, capitalizing on anti-corruption pledges and rural appeal following the Zhelyazkov government's December collapse and widespread protests. Polls like Market Links (April 16) and CAM (April 3-14) project PB winning 85-95 seats under proportional representation, far exceeding the 121-seat majority threshold in the 240-seat National Assembly. Realistic challenges include a late polling shift from higher turnout among opponents or unforeseen scandals, though consistent trends suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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