Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$216,630 交易量
$216,630 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
99%
GERB–SDS
<1%
PP–DB
<1%
DPS
<1%
有这样一个民族党（ITN）
<1%
维利奇
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
<1%
MECH
<1%
复兴党
<1%
PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
PP–DB <1%
DPS <1%
$216,630 交易量
$216,630 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
$75,843 交易量
99%
GERB–SDS
$35,441 交易量
<1%
PP–DB
$34,287 交易量
<1%
DPS
$4,252 交易量
<1%
有这样一个民族党（ITN）
$11,889 交易量
<1%
维利奇
$15,738 交易量
<1%
APS
$11,608 交易量
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
$7,898 交易量
<1%
MECH
$10,144 交易量
<1%
复兴党
$9,543 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
交易量
$216,630结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$216,630结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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