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气候与科学·流行病

疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？

icon for 疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？
气候与科学·流行病

疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？

12月 31

12月 31

是

25% 概率
Polymarket

$71,871 交易量

是

25% 概率
Polymarket

$71,871 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice has been issued as of mid-June 2026, with the agency currently listing zero destinations at the “Avoid All Travel” threshold.** Recent Ebola Bundibugyo virus outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda triggered only Level 3 notices despite WHO and Africa CDC declarations of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern; official assessments cite limited confirmed cases, contained geographic spread, and low U.S. importation risk under current surveillance and response protocols. Parallel alerts for Andes virus clusters and routine dengue or malaria upticks remain at Level 2 or below. CDC criteria for Level 4 require extreme health risk with no effective precautions available—an evidentiary bar not met by present epidemiological data. Traders therefore assign roughly 75% probability that no qualifying event materializes before year-end, reflecting stable transmission patterns and measured agency thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$71,871
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice has been issued as of mid-June 2026, with the agency currently listing zero destinations at the “Avoid All Travel” threshold.** Recent Ebola Bundibugyo virus outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda triggered only Level 3 notices despite WHO and Africa CDC declarations of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern; official assessments cite limited confirmed cases, contained geographic spread, and low U.S. importation risk under current surveillance and response protocols. Parallel alerts for Andes virus clusters and routine dengue or malaria upticks remain at Level 2 or below. CDC criteria for Level 4 require extreme health risk with no effective precautions available—an evidentiary bar not met by present epidemiological data. Traders therefore assign roughly 75% probability that no qualifying event materializes before year-end, reflecting stable transmission patterns and measured agency thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$71,871
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"到12月31日，CDC发布四级警告？"，概率为 25%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 25¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 25%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？"已产生 $71.9K 的总交易量（自Jan 19, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？"的当前领先者是"到12月31日，CDC发布四级警告？"，概率为 25%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 25%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"疾病预防控制中心在12月31日前发出4级警告？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。