China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, bolstering trader consensus for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 65.5% implied probability, closely tracking the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—the lowest in decades amid property sector headwinds and external risks like the Iran war. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 31.2% reflects optimism from resilient exports and recent stimulus, including central bank rate cuts, though IMF (4.4%) and World Bank (4.0%) forecasts temper expectations for higher bands. Ongoing property stabilization efforts and fiscal expansion will shape H2 trajectories, with lower ranges dismissed due to robust Q1 momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 67%
5.0–6.0% 33.9%
低于1.0% 1.2%
3.0–4.0% 1.0%
$259,917 交易量
$259,917 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
67%
5.0–6.0%
31%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 67%
5.0–6.0% 33.9%
低于1.0% 1.2%
3.0–4.0% 1.0%
$259,917 交易量
$259,917 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
$22,895 交易量
1%
1.0–2.0%
$27,424 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$6,668 交易量
1%
3.0–4.0%
$10,483 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$44,840 交易量
67%
5.0–6.0%
$22,232 交易量
31%
6.0-7.0%
$19,687 交易量
1%
7.0–8.0%
$29,820 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$6,981 交易量
1%
9.0%及以上
$69,049 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, bolstering trader consensus for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 65.5% implied probability, closely tracking the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—the lowest in decades amid property sector headwinds and external risks like the Iran war. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 31.2% reflects optimism from resilient exports and recent stimulus, including central bank rate cuts, though IMF (4.4%) and World Bank (4.0%) forecasts temper expectations for higher bands. Ongoing property stabilization efforts and fiscal expansion will shape H2 trajectories, with lower ranges dismissed due to robust Q1 momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$259,917结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, bolstering trader consensus for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 65.5% implied probability, closely tracking the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—the lowest in decades amid property sector headwinds and external risks like the Iran war. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 31.2% reflects optimism from resilient exports and recent stimulus, including central bank rate cuts, though IMF (4.4%) and World Bank (4.0%) forecasts temper expectations for higher bands. Ongoing property stabilization efforts and fiscal expansion will shape H2 trajectories, with lower ranges dismissed due to robust Q1 momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$259,917结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, bolstering trader consensus for annual growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 65.5% implied probability, closely tracking the government's March target of 4.5–5.0%—the lowest in decades amid property sector headwinds and external risks like the Iran war. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 31.2% reflects optimism from resilient exports and recent stimulus, including central bank rate cuts, though IMF (4.4%) and World Bank (4.0%) forecasts temper expectations for higher bands. Ongoing property stabilization efforts and fiscal expansion will shape H2 trajectories, with lower ranges dismissed due to robust Q1 momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题