Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.4-0.6% 100.0%
≤0.0% <1%
0.1-0.3% <1%
0.7-0.9% <1%
$30,441 交易量
$30,441 交易量
2026-04-30
≤0.0%
否
0.1-0.3%
否
0.4-0.6%
是
0.7-0.9%
否
1.0-1.2%
否
1.3%及以上
否
0.4-0.6% 100.0%
≤0.0% <1%
0.1-0.3% <1%
0.7-0.9% <1%
$30,441 交易量
$30,441 交易量
2026-04-30
≤0.0%
$2,737 交易量
否
0.1-0.3%
$3,263 交易量
否
0.4-0.6%
$17,263 交易量
是
0.7-0.9%
$1,672 交易量
否
1.0-1.2%
$2,432 交易量
否
1.3%及以上
$3,073 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
交易量
$30,441结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$30,441结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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