Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 78%
降低25个基点 14%
加息25个基点 4.0%
降息50个基点及以上 3.5%
$3,650,696 交易量
$3,650,696 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
3%
降低25个基点
14%
无变化
78%
加息25个基点
4%
上调50个基点以上
1%
无变化 78%
降低25个基点 14%
加息25个基点 4.0%
降息50个基点及以上 3.5%
$3,650,696 交易量
$3,650,696 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$162,097 交易量
3%
降低25个基点
$111,948 交易量
14%
无变化
$171,951 交易量
78%
加息25个基点
$3,016,750 交易量
4%
上调50个基点以上
$187,960 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$3,650,696结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$3,650,696结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability of no change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—reversing February's decline—and hotter-than-expected March CPI rising to 330.21 points amid war-related oil shocks elevating inflation risks. March 17–18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed officials' growing openness to rate hikes while holding the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, underscoring a data-dependent stance amid sticky price pressures. Smaller odds for a 25 basis point cut (13.5%) stem from balanced labor market signals, with hike probabilities (4.0% for 25 bps, 1.3% for 50+ bps) capturing tail risks from persistent inflation; traders eye the April 29–30 meeting and May CPI for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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