Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in model selectors and limited user access as of May 5 have fueled trader optimism for an imminent release, pushing May 19 to a 36% implied probability amid Google I/O's kickoff that day. The closely matched 30% odds on no release by May 31 reflect persistent uncertainty, as Google has made no official announcement despite aggressive iteration on its large language model family—following Gemini 3.1's March rollout. Competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 series and Anthropic's Claude updates intensify the rush, with benchmarks and tool-calling improvements eyed as differentiators. Watch I/O May 19-20 for previews or developer access that could resolve the market, though historical delays in AI model launches add risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 19 34%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 11%
May 14 6%
最新
$35,642 交易量
最新
$35,642 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
1%
May 11
3%
May 12
21%
May 13
11%
May 14
9%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
6%
May 21
2%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
2%
May 27
3%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
32%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 28%
May 13 11%
May 14 6%
最新
$35,642 交易量
最新
$35,642 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
$1,423 交易量
<1%
May 7
$784 交易量
<1%
May 8
$499 交易量
<1%
May 9
$2,773 交易量
1%
May 10
$2,853 交易量
1%
May 11
$554 交易量
3%
May 12
$567 交易量
21%
May 13
$604 交易量
11%
May 14
$526 交易量
9%
May 15
$524 交易量
2%
May 16
$2,806 交易量
<1%
May 17
$2,818 交易量
<1%
May 18
$752 交易量
4%
May 19
$1,136 交易量
34%
May 20
$857 交易量
6%
May 21
$791 交易量
2%
May 22
$771 交易量
1%
May 23
$2,581 交易量
<1%
May 24
$2,626 交易量
1%
May 25
$596 交易量
3%
May 26
$601 交易量
2%
May 27
$586 交易量
3%
May 28
$586 交易量
<1%
May 29
$611 交易量
1%
May 30
$2,990 交易量
1%
May 31
$2,757 交易量
1%
No release by May 31
$671 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in model selectors and limited user access as of May 5 have fueled trader optimism for an imminent release, pushing May 19 to a 36% implied probability amid Google I/O's kickoff that day. The closely matched 30% odds on no release by May 31 reflect persistent uncertainty, as Google has made no official announcement despite aggressive iteration on its large language model family—following Gemini 3.1's March rollout. Competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 series and Anthropic's Claude updates intensify the rush, with benchmarks and tool-calling improvements eyed as differentiators. Watch I/O May 19-20 for previews or developer access that could resolve the market, though historical delays in AI model launches add risk.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$35,642结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in model selectors and limited user access as of May 5 have fueled trader optimism for an imminent release, pushing May 19 to a 36% implied probability amid Google I/O's kickoff that day. The closely matched 30% odds on no release by May 31 reflect persistent uncertainty, as Google has made no official announcement despite aggressive iteration on its large language model family—following Gemini 3.1's March rollout. Competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 series and Anthropic's Claude updates intensify the rush, with benchmarks and tool-calling improvements eyed as differentiators. Watch I/O May 19-20 for previews or developer access that could resolve the market, though historical delays in AI model launches add risk.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$35,642结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash appearing in model selectors and limited user access as of May 5 have fueled trader optimism for an imminent release, pushing May 19 to a 36% implied probability amid Google I/O's kickoff that day. The closely matched 30% odds on no release by May 31 reflect persistent uncertainty, as Google has made no official announcement despite aggressive iteration on its large language model family—following Gemini 3.1's March rollout. Competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 series and Anthropic's Claude updates intensify the rush, with benchmarks and tool-calling improvements eyed as differentiators. Watch I/O May 19-20 for previews or developer access that could resolve the market, though historical delays in AI model launches add risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题