OpenAI’s limited progress on any standalone social network continues to anchor the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Reports from January 2026 described an early-stage effort by a team of fewer than ten people exploring biometric “proof of personhood” verification, but no official timeline, prototype demo, or resource commitment has emerged since. The company has instead prioritized GPT-5.6 releases, the upcoming Astra model family, enterprise tools, and IPO preparation, while shuttering the experimental Sora video app earlier this year amid high compute costs. With only four months remaining and no public signals of acceleration, traders see little bandwidth for a full feed-based platform meeting the market’s criteria. A surprise late-year pivot to integrate social features into ChatGPT or a minimal biometric test could still shift odds, though current priorities make that unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
8% 概率
$63,317 交易量
$63,317 交易量
2026-12-31
是
8% 概率
$63,317 交易量
$63,317 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s limited progress on any standalone social network continues to anchor the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Reports from January 2026 described an early-stage effort by a team of fewer than ten people exploring biometric “proof of personhood” verification, but no official timeline, prototype demo, or resource commitment has emerged since. The company has instead prioritized GPT-5.6 releases, the upcoming Astra model family, enterprise tools, and IPO preparation, while shuttering the experimental Sora video app earlier this year amid high compute costs. With only four months remaining and no public signals of acceleration, traders see little bandwidth for a full feed-based platform meeting the market’s criteria. A surprise late-year pivot to integrate social features into ChatGPT or a minimal biometric test could still shift odds, though current priorities make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$63,317结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s limited progress on any standalone social network continues to anchor the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Reports from January 2026 described an early-stage effort by a team of fewer than ten people exploring biometric “proof of personhood” verification, but no official timeline, prototype demo, or resource commitment has emerged since. The company has instead prioritized GPT-5.6 releases, the upcoming Astra model family, enterprise tools, and IPO preparation, while shuttering the experimental Sora video app earlier this year amid high compute costs. With only four months remaining and no public signals of acceleration, traders see little bandwidth for a full feed-based platform meeting the market’s criteria. A surprise late-year pivot to integrate social features into ChatGPT or a minimal biometric test could still shift odds, though current priorities make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$63,317结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETOpenAI’s limited progress on any standalone social network continues to anchor the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. Reports from January 2026 described an early-stage effort by a team of fewer than ten people exploring biometric “proof of personhood” verification, but no official timeline, prototype demo, or resource commitment has emerged since. The company has instead prioritized GPT-5.6 releases, the upcoming Astra model family, enterprise tools, and IPO preparation, while shuttering the experimental Sora video app earlier this year amid high compute costs. With only four months remaining and no public signals of acceleration, traders see little bandwidth for a full feed-based platform meeting the market’s criteria. A surprise late-year pivot to integrate social features into ChatGPT or a minimal biometric test could still shift odds, though current priorities make that unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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