Anthropic’s Claude service faces ongoing capacity constraints from surging user and developer demand, driving the market’s consensus toward 8–10 downtime days in August at 48% implied probability. Multiple outages earlier in 2026, including widespread incidents in March, April, and June tied to high-traffic surges and infrastructure limits, established a pattern of intermittent disruptions despite strong performance on benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Early August has shown no reported incidents through the first few days, yet the company’s history of degraded performance and elevated error rates during peak periods continues to shape trader expectations for moderate monthly downtime rather than minimal or extended outages.