Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong 84% implied probability for claude-opus-5-max. The model reached new state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at max effort while matching or exceeding Fable 5 on several software-engineering and knowledge-work evaluations at roughly half the cost. Its 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder further boosted trader confidence that an Opus-5 variant will lead capability rankings on August 17. Earlier Opus 4.8 and competing frontier releases from other labs have not closed the gap in recent public benchmarks, leaving little room for alternative outcomes unless a surprise model launch occurs in the next two weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
其他 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-opus-5-high
6%
其他
6%
claude-fable-5
3%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
其他 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
$124 交易量
84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$166 交易量
8%
claude-opus-5-high
$40 交易量
6%
其他
$0 交易量
6%
claude-fable-5
$48 交易量
3%
claude-opus-4-6
$111 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong 84% implied probability for claude-opus-5-max. The model reached new state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at max effort while matching or exceeding Fable 5 on several software-engineering and knowledge-work evaluations at roughly half the cost. Its 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder further boosted trader confidence that an Opus-5 variant will lead capability rankings on August 17. Earlier Opus 4.8 and competing frontier releases from other labs have not closed the gap in recent public benchmarks, leaving little room for alternative outcomes unless a surprise model launch occurs in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$489结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong 84% implied probability for claude-opus-5-max. The model reached new state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at max effort while matching or exceeding Fable 5 on several software-engineering and knowledge-work evaluations at roughly half the cost. Its 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder further boosted trader confidence that an Opus-5 variant will lead capability rankings on August 17. Earlier Opus 4.8 and competing frontier releases from other labs have not closed the gap in recent public benchmarks, leaving little room for alternative outcomes unless a surprise model launch occurs in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$489结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETAnthropic’s July 24, 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong 84% implied probability for claude-opus-5-max. The model reached new state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench and CursorBench at max effort while matching or exceeding Fable 5 on several software-engineering and knowledge-work evaluations at roughly half the cost. Its 1-million-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder further boosted trader confidence that an Opus-5 variant will lead capability rankings on August 17. Earlier Opus 4.8 and competing frontier releases from other labs have not closed the gap in recent public benchmarks, leaving little room for alternative outcomes unless a surprise model launch occurs in the next two weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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