Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's unchallenged #1 Elo position since early April, following its February 2026 release and the April 7 Mythos unveiling for superior token efficiency and AI capabilities. xAI follows at 26.5% amid Grok 4.20's competitive benchmarks and delayed Grok 5 expectations, while Baidu, Microsoft, Meituan, and others cluster around 25-26% on rumored Ernie, Phi-series, and enterprise model upgrades from China's vibrant developer ecosystem. Key catalysts include impending rival large language model launches, though historical delays underscore prediction market uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 74%
Microsoft 26%
Z.ai 25%
Mistral 24%
最新
最新
2026-05-31
Anthropic
74%
Microsoft
26%
Z.ai
25%
Mistral
24%
Amazon
24%
23%
DeepSeek
23%
OpenAI
22%
xAI
16%
Alibaba
15%
Moonshot
15%
Meituan
15%
ByteDance
14%
Meta
12%
Baidu
2%
Anthropic 74%
Microsoft 26%
Z.ai 25%
Mistral 24%
最新
最新
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$20 交易量
74%
Microsoft
$0 交易量
26%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
25%
Mistral
$0 交易量
24%
Amazon
$0 交易量
24%
$0 交易量
23%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
23%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
22%
xAI
$0 交易量
16%
Alibaba
$0 交易量
15%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
15%
Meituan
$0 交易量
15%
ByteDance
$0 交易量
14%
Meta
$0 交易量
12%
Baidu
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's unchallenged #1 Elo position since early April, following its February 2026 release and the April 7 Mythos unveiling for superior token efficiency and AI capabilities. xAI follows at 26.5% amid Grok 4.20's competitive benchmarks and delayed Grok 5 expectations, while Baidu, Microsoft, Meituan, and others cluster around 25-26% on rumored Ernie, Phi-series, and enterprise model upgrades from China's vibrant developer ecosystem. Key catalysts include impending rival large language model launches, though historical delays underscore prediction market uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's unchallenged #1 Elo position since early April, following its February 2026 release and the April 7 Mythos unveiling for superior token efficiency and AI capabilities. xAI follows at 26.5% amid Grok 4.20's competitive benchmarks and delayed Grok 5 expectations, while Baidu, Microsoft, Meituan, and others cluster around 25-26% on rumored Ernie, Phi-series, and enterprise model upgrades from China's vibrant developer ecosystem. Key catalysts include impending rival large language model launches, though historical delays underscore prediction market uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's unchallenged #1 Elo position since early April, following its February 2026 release and the April 7 Mythos unveiling for superior token efficiency and AI capabilities. xAI follows at 26.5% amid Grok 4.20's competitive benchmarks and delayed Grok 5 expectations, while Baidu, Microsoft, Meituan, and others cluster around 25-26% on rumored Ernie, Phi-series, and enterprise model upgrades from China's vibrant developer ecosystem. Key catalysts include impending rival large language model launches, though historical delays underscore prediction market uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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