Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking at 66.5% implied probability as the best AI model on April 17 under style control off, propelled by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 (1497 Elo) and rivals like GPT-5.4-high (1484 Elo) and Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released in February 2026, the model's edge in blind human evaluations for reasoning, coding, and natural interaction solidified over the past week amid minimal competition updates, with OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 launch and Google's Gemini 3 series trailing in key benchmarks. With resolution just seven days away, traders eye potential last-minute model previews from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta or others to challenge the lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-4-6-thinking 77%
kimi-k2.5-thinking 20.3%
claude-opus-4-6 7%
gpt-5.4-high 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
77%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
20%
claude-opus-4-6
7%
gpt-5.4-high
4%
gemini-3-flash
3%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
2%
grok-4.20-beta1
2%
qwen3.5-max-preview
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
gemini-3-pro
1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 77%
kimi-k2.5-thinking 20.3%
claude-opus-4-6 7%
gpt-5.4-high 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$34 交易量
77%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
$67 交易量
20%
claude-opus-4-6
$33 交易量
7%
gpt-5.4-high
$54 交易量
4%
gemini-3-flash
$84 交易量
3%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$59 交易量
2%
grok-4.20-beta1
$82 交易量
2%
qwen3.5-max-preview
$166 交易量
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
$166 交易量
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
$165 交易量
1%
gemini-3-pro
$54 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking at 66.5% implied probability as the best AI model on April 17 under style control off, propelled by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 (1497 Elo) and rivals like GPT-5.4-high (1484 Elo) and Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released in February 2026, the model's edge in blind human evaluations for reasoning, coding, and natural interaction solidified over the past week amid minimal competition updates, with OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 launch and Google's Gemini 3 series trailing in key benchmarks. With resolution just seven days away, traders eye potential last-minute model previews from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta or others to challenge the lead.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$963结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking at 66.5% implied probability as the best AI model on April 17 under style control off, propelled by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 (1497 Elo) and rivals like GPT-5.4-high (1484 Elo) and Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released in February 2026, the model's edge in blind human evaluations for reasoning, coding, and natural interaction solidified over the past week amid minimal competition updates, with OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 launch and Google's Gemini 3 series trailing in key benchmarks. With resolution just seven days away, traders eye potential last-minute model previews from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta or others to challenge the lead.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$963结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking at 66.5% implied probability as the best AI model on April 17 under style control off, propelled by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score of 1503—surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 (1497 Elo) and rivals like GPT-5.4-high (1484 Elo) and Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released in February 2026, the model's edge in blind human evaluations for reasoning, coding, and natural interaction solidified over the past week amid minimal competition updates, with OpenAI's March GPT-5.4 launch and Google's Gemini 3 series trailing in key benchmarks. With resolution just seven days away, traders eye potential last-minute model previews from xAI's Grok 4.20 beta or others to challenge the lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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