Incumbent U.S. Rep. Ed Case holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the HI-01 Democratic primary due to his established name recognition and congressional record, yet the race remains tight against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole. Keohokalole's campaign has gained traction through targeted endorsements and comparable fundraising outlays ahead of the August 8 primary. Recent spending reports show both candidates accelerating outreach in urban Honolulu districts, while polling from late 2025 indicated substantial undecided voters. Other declared candidates draw minimal support. Voter turnout patterns among core Democratic blocs and any final-week endorsements or debate performances could shift the implied probabilities before resolution.