Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 交易量
$105,539 交易量
2026-05-07
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$105,539 交易量
$105,539 交易量
2026-05-07
27°C or below
$20,602 交易量
No
28°C
$25,700 交易量
No
29°C
$9,049 交易量
No
30°C
$3,049 交易量
No
31°C
$13,698 交易量
No
32°C
$2,192 交易量
No
33°C
$10,038 交易量
Yes
34°C
$9,292 交易量
No
35°C
$4,180 交易量
No
36°C
$4,362 交易量
No
37°C or higher
$3,377 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
交易量
$105,539结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$105,539结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 33°C at 100% implied probability for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, backed by official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Murtala Muhammed International Airport station confirming a peak of 33°C amid partly cloudy mornings transitioning to afternoon thunderstorms that capped heating. This aligns precisely with pre-event NiMet outlooks and ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 32–33°C highs, consistent with May climatology featuring warm Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures (around 29°C), urban heat island amplification, and rainy season onset suppressing extremes beyond 33–34°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from an alternative verified station revealing a higher reading, though current reports show no discrepancies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题