**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月26日勒克瑙的最高温度？
6月26日勒克瑙的最高温度？
41°C 100%
37°C或以下 <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 交易量
$102,457 交易量
2026-06-26
37°C或以下
否
38°C
否
39°C
否
40°C
否
41°C
是
42°C
否
43°C
否
44°C
否
45°C
否
46°C
否
47°C或更高
否
41°C 100%
37°C或以下 <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 交易量
$102,457 交易量
2026-06-26
37°C或以下
$4,105 交易量
否
38°C
$3,816 交易量
否
39°C
$15,889 交易量
否
40°C
$17,475 交易量
否
41°C
$22,133 交易量
是
42°C
$11,080 交易量
否
43°C
$3,568 交易量
否
44°C
$1,879 交易量
否
45°C
$2,670 交易量
否
46°C
$6,476 交易量
否
47°C或更高
$13,366 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$102,457结束日期
2026-06-26市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$102,457结束日期
2026-06-26市场开放时间
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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