Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (51.5% implied probability), driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest GFS model forecast projecting a daytime high of 30-31°C under partly cloudy skies with northwest winds suppressing heat. Historical data shows March 22 averages around 30.5°C, but recent western disturbances have cooled northern India, with Lucknow recording 28.8°C max on March 21 and minimal warming expected absent a sharp ridge. Ensemble models from ECMWF and IMD diverge slightly by 1-2°C, yet low humidity and no heatwave signals keep 31°C viable at 25.5%; hotter outcomes (<5%) reflect rare dry föhn effects, pending this afternoon's update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 52%
31°C 26%
32°C 7%
33°C 6.5%
$20,008 交易量
$20,008 交易量
30°C or below
52%
31°C
26%
32°C
7%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 52%
31°C 26%
32°C 7%
33°C 6.5%
$20,008 交易量
$20,008 交易量
30°C or below
52%
31°C
26%
32°C
7%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (51.5% implied probability), driven by the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest GFS model forecast projecting a daytime high of 30-31°C under partly cloudy skies with northwest winds suppressing heat. Historical data shows March 22 averages around 30.5°C, but recent western disturbances have cooled northern India, with Lucknow recording 28.8°C max on March 21 and minimal warming expected absent a sharp ridge. Ensemble models from ECMWF and IMD diverge slightly by 1-2°C, yet low humidity and no heatwave signals keep 31°C viable at 25.5%; hotter outcomes (<5%) reflect rare dry föhn effects, pending this afternoon's update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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