Ensemble weather models from leading forecasters like the ECMWF and GFS currently converge on a Seoul high temperature around 14-16°C on March 23, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities with 16°C or higher at 26.5% edging out 15°C (19.5%) and nearby outcomes. This reflects a building high-pressure ridge over East Asia ushering southerly winds and mild advection of warmer air masses, potentially boosted by urban heat island effects in Seoul. However, uncertainty lingers from possible northward progression of a lingering cold front, which could cap peaks nearer 13°C (16%) if it accelerates, per recent Korea Meteorological Administration updates and historical late-March volatility averaging 12°C highs. Traders weigh these dynamical divergences closely as final 24-hour guidance firms up.