Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$258,465 交易量
$258,465 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$258,465 交易量
$258,465 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$258,465结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$258,465结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRecent US and Israeli strikes have substantially degraded Iran's nuclear facilities and expertise, leaving the program in a damaged state with unverified stockpiles of enriched uranium and no confirmed weaponization steps. Heightened IAEA scrutiny, referral to the UN Security Council, and international pressure further constrain rapid advancement toward a test in the brief window before 2027. Official Iranian statements continue to affirm a peaceful program, despite isolated domestic calls for doctrinal shifts that have not translated into parliamentary action. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test reflects these structural barriers, though undetected reconstitution at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or sudden policy reversal amid renewed conflict could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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