Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble and halting verifiable enrichment activity. The IAEA has reported a loss of continuity of knowledge on Iran's nuclear material since mid-2025, with inspectors denied access to key facilities amid a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that froze the status quo. Diplomatic pressure intensified in September 2026 when the IAEA board referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council for the first time in two decades, coinciding with satellite evidence of new underground construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. Trader consensus at 95% "No" reflects these setbacks to Iran's technical timeline, though undetected recovery of fissile material or accelerated covert weaponization before December 31, 2026, remain low-probability risks.